■ 6월 FOMC 의사록 주요 내용(정책, 물가)

- 일부(some) 구성원, 물가 목표의 지속적인 달성을 위해서는 전반적인 서비스 가격 둔화가 필요. 또한, 주거 물가는 아직까지 둔화 속도가 더딘 편

(Some participants commented that sustained achievement of the 2 percent inflation objective would be aided by lower overall services price inflation, and some noted that shelter price inflation had so far been slow to come down.)

- 구성원 전원, 기업들의 가격 결정력은 약화

(Participants further indicated that business contacts reported that their pricing power had declined.)

- 구성원 전원, 1) 수요, 공급 측면 및 고용 압력 완화 지속, 2) 시차를 두고 나타나는 긴축 통화정책 효과, 3) 임대 가격 반영 지연, 4) 추가 공급 측면 개선으로 디스인플레이션 이어질 것

(Participants highlighted a variety of factors that were likely to help contribute to continued disinflation in the period ahead. The factors included continued easing of demand–supply pressures in product and labor markets, lagged effects on wages and prices of past monetary policy tightening, the delayed response of measured shelter prices to rental market developments, or the prospect of additional supply-side improvements.)

- 일부(some) 구성원, 1) 지정학적 리스크, 2) 무역 분쟁, 3) 주거 물가 상승세 고착화, 4) 방만한 정부 재정정책 운영 등오로 물가가 2%를 계속해서 상회할 가능성 존재.

(These participants pointed to risks that inflation could stay elevated as a result of worsening geopolitical developments, heightened trade tensions, more persistent shelter price inflation, financial conditions that might be or could become insufficiently restrictive, or U.S. fiscal policy becoming more expansionary than expected; the latter two scenarios were also seen as implying upside risks to economic activity.)

- 구성원 전원, 물가가 목표 수준으로 복귀한 뒤 동 수준에 지속적으로 머물 것이라는 추가 확신이 들기 전까지 기준금리를 유지하는 것이 적절

(They emphasized that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the Committee's 2 percent objective.)

- 일부(some) 구성원, 포워드 가이던스가 아닌 데이터에 기반한 정책 결정이 이루어짐을 강조하는 것이 연준 통화정책 투명성 및 명확성에 도움될 것

(Some participants suggested that further clarity about the FOMC's reaction function might be provided by communications that emphasized the Committee's data-dependent approach, with monetary policy decisions being conditional on the evolution of the economy rather than being on a preset path.)

- 몇몇(a couple of) 구성원, 연준의 경제 관련 전망치, 주시하고 있는 리스크 등에 대한 더 많은 정보를 제공하면 시장의 통화정책 이해도를 높일 수 있음

A couple of participants remarked that providing more information about the Committee's views on the economic outlook and the risks around the outlook would improve the public's understanding of the Committee's decisions.

- 일부(some) 구성원, 강한 경기가 지속되는 것을 보면 장기 중립금리가 기존 추정치보다 더 높은 곳에 위치할 가능성. 이 경우 통화정책 수준이 생각보다 제한적이지 않을 수 있음

(Some remarked that the continued strength of the economy, as well as other factors, could mean that the longer-run equilibrium interest rate was higher than previously assessed, in which case both the stance of monetary policy and overall financial conditions may be less restrictive than they might appear.)

- 몇몇(several) 구성원, 인플레이션 고착화 또는 상승률 확대 시 기준금리 추가 인상 필요

(Several participants observed that, were inflation to persist at an elevated level or to increase further, the target range for the federal funds rate might need to be raised.)

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